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五年大漲后,蘋果的股票是否依然值得投資?

五年大漲后,蘋果的股票是否依然值得投資?

Shawn Tully 2020年07月02日
由于這幾年漲幅過大,未來五年,蘋果投資者的回報率若能達到5%左右,就已經是吉星高照了。

過去五年,蘋果公司(Apple)股票的業績驚人,它就像是一列貌似勢不可擋的財富快車。但這給正在考慮要不要現在登上這列快車的投資者帶來了一個問題。簡單來說,作為美國最偉大的企業,蘋果公司的股價過高,因此未來五年,投資者的回報率若能達到普普通通的個位數中段,就已經是吉星高照了。

就在三個月前,新冠疫情引發的拋售潮讓蘋果的股價下跌30%,從歷史最高的325美元下跌到2月中旬的224美元,蘋果現象似乎已經難以為繼。接下來的反彈則讓蘋果的擁躉們相信,在脫離控制的市場動量的不可抗力下,蘋果公司的高股價并非不可撼動。從3月23日到6月20日,蘋果股價上漲62%至362美元,打破了之前的紀錄,使其市值增長6,000億美元,相當于奈飛(Netflix)、特斯拉(Tesla)和Adobe的市值總和。此輪上漲創下了全球資本主義史上的最大市值漲幅。

蘋果目前的股價遠高于其過去五年大部分時間的水平,因此投資者有理由懷疑蘋果股票是否仍有投資的價值?要回答這個問題,我們需要研究過去五年蘋果能夠給投資者帶來豐厚回報的因素,以及這些因素未來繼續增加回報所面臨的障礙。

從2015年3月(其財年的第二季度)至今年3月,蘋果的年度總收益率約為20%,其中18%來自資本收益,2%為股息。蘋果之所以能給投資者提供如此豐厚的回報,并不是因為其基本面(即營收)迅速增長,而是因為其股價極低,因此進行股票回購收效顯著,也為提高市盈率倍數留出了大量空間,投資者愿意通過支付這樣的股價來獲得收益。

2015年3月,蘋果之前四個季度的營收為504億美元,其市值高達7,580億美元。所以其市盈率只有15。如此低的市盈率意味著在投資者眼中,該公司的總營收長期持平,甚至在不斷下滑。事實上,截至2020年3月,根據最近四個季度的情況,蘋果公司的凈利潤只增長到572.4億美元,漲幅只有13.6%。這相當于每年只增長2.5%,跑贏通脹約1個百分點。蘋果的增長并不強勁。

但蘋果有一個強大的工具可以提高其每股收益。作為一臺無可匹敵的“提款機”,蘋果公司需要的資本投資很少,因此它能夠并且依舊在把全部營收用于發放股息和回購股票。到目前為止,股票回購是蘋果股價上漲最主要的推動力。在市盈率為15時,蘋果用于回購股票的每1美元,可以提高每股收益6.7美分,因為與收益相比,蘋果的股價極低。而且按照年平均營收約500億美元計算,蘋果公司的平均市盈率一直維持在15左右,直到2019年年中公司股價開始大幅上漲。

在過去五年的大部分時間里,蘋果將四分之三的營收用于股票回購。從2015年至2020年,蘋果通過回購將已發行流通股減少了24.5%,從58.34億股減少到44億股。流通股的大幅減少讓每股收益同期增長了三分之一。所以,僅僅股票回購就能使每股收益每年平均提高5.5%,是營收增長對每股收益增長的貢獻率的兩倍。

回購和營收增長讓每股收益共增長了約48%,從8.60美元增長到12.73美元,相當于每年增長8%。當然,到目前為止,股票回購對每股收益的貢獻更大。

但蘋果股價的上漲幅度更大,從130美元上漲到362美元,漲幅高達176%。股價大漲的原因是蘋果市盈率從15提高近一倍達到28。事實證明,突然之間投資者愿意為每一美元收益投入越來越多資金,這是蘋果過去五年能為投資者帶來豐厚回報的最大因素。

我們把這些數據加在一起。蘋果公司在2015年3月至2020年3月期間的總收益率為20%,其中營收增長貢獻了2.5個百分點,股票回購貢獻了5.5個百分點,股息貢獻了2個百分點,總計10%。估值擴張貢獻了10個百分點,與其他三個因素的總和相當。

當然,這四個因素也將決定未來五年蘋果股價的走勢。只是這次,投資者沒有了從低點進場的優勢。我們假設蘋果的市盈率維持在28。這是樂觀的預測,因為這個數字遠高于今天已經較高的市盈率22。如此高的估值使得估值擴張不再是一個長期驅動因素,當然出現泡沫的可能性始終存在,在這種情況下市盈率或許會短暫上漲。

假設市盈率維持在28,每股收益增長將主要來自其他三個因素:營收增長、股票回購和股息。我們假設蘋果的營收延續過去五年的趨勢,每年對每股收益增長的貢獻率為2.5%。或許這聽起來并不高,但要實現利潤增長2.5%,蘋果每年的銷售額需要增加約70億美元,并且每年都要保持這樣的增長勢頭。

如果蘋果按照以往的做法,將75%的營收用于股票回購,則可以把每股收益再提高2.6%。與過去五年相比,股票回購對每股收益的提振效果減少了超過一半。第三個因素股息的貢獻率約為1%。將營收增長(2.5%)、股票回購(2.6%)和股息(1%)增加的每股收益相加,總計可以使每股收益增長6.1%。因此,由于當前的高股價導致市盈率不可能繼續升高,并且股票回購的效果減弱,按照新的計算方式,蘋果未來的收益率只有過去五年(20%)的三分之一左右。

當然,蘋果的利潤增長速度可能高于每年2.5%。比如,有支持者提到了蘋果可穿戴設備和特許服務業務的強勁增長。但壞消息是,在截至3月的一個季度,蘋果旗艦iPhone手機的銷量和總利潤均出現了下滑。蘋果多年前之所以能吸引投資者,是因為它是一個增長緩慢的龐然大物,并且股價極低。現在它依舊是一個增長緩慢的龐然大物,但其股價卻已經高不可攀。蘋果確實像粉絲們說的那樣是一家優秀的公司。但蘋果唯一表現平平的方面就是股票的前景。(財富中文網)

譯者:Biz

過去五年,蘋果公司(Apple)股票的業績驚人,它就像是一列貌似勢不可擋的財富快車。但這給正在考慮要不要現在登上這列快車的投資者帶來了一個問題。簡單來說,作為美國最偉大的企業,蘋果公司的股價過高,因此未來五年,投資者的回報率若能達到普普通通的個位數中段,就已經是吉星高照了。

就在三個月前,新冠疫情引發的拋售潮讓蘋果的股價下跌30%,從歷史最高的325美元下跌到2月中旬的224美元,蘋果現象似乎已經難以為繼。接下來的反彈則讓蘋果的擁躉們相信,在脫離控制的市場動量的不可抗力下,蘋果公司的高股價并非不可撼動。從3月23日到6月20日,蘋果股價上漲62%至362美元,打破了之前的紀錄,使其市值增長6,000億美元,相當于奈飛(Netflix)、特斯拉(Tesla)和Adobe的市值總和。此輪上漲創下了全球資本主義史上的最大市值漲幅。

蘋果目前的股價遠高于其過去五年大部分時間的水平,因此投資者有理由懷疑蘋果股票是否仍有投資的價值?要回答這個問題,我們需要研究過去五年蘋果能夠給投資者帶來豐厚回報的因素,以及這些因素未來繼續增加回報所面臨的障礙。

從2015年3月(其財年的第二季度)至今年3月,蘋果的年度總收益率約為20%,其中18%來自資本收益,2%為股息。蘋果之所以能給投資者提供如此豐厚的回報,并不是因為其基本面(即營收)迅速增長,而是因為其股價極低,因此進行股票回購收效顯著,也為提高市盈率倍數留出了大量空間,投資者愿意通過支付這樣的股價來獲得收益。

2015年3月,蘋果之前四個季度的營收為504億美元,其市值高達7,580億美元。所以其市盈率只有15。如此低的市盈率意味著在投資者眼中,該公司的總營收長期持平,甚至在不斷下滑。事實上,截至2020年3月,根據最近四個季度的情況,蘋果公司的凈利潤只增長到572.4億美元,漲幅只有13.6%。這相當于每年只增長2.5%,跑贏通脹約1個百分點。蘋果的增長并不強勁。

但蘋果有一個強大的工具可以提高其每股收益。作為一臺無可匹敵的“提款機”,蘋果公司需要的資本投資很少,因此它能夠并且依舊在把全部營收用于發放股息和回購股票。到目前為止,股票回購是蘋果股價上漲最主要的推動力。在市盈率為15時,蘋果用于回購股票的每1美元,可以提高每股收益6.7美分,因為與收益相比,蘋果的股價極低。而且按照年平均營收約500億美元計算,蘋果公司的平均市盈率一直維持在15左右,直到2019年年中公司股價開始大幅上漲。

在過去五年的大部分時間里,蘋果將四分之三的營收用于股票回購。從2015年至2020年,蘋果通過回購將已發行流通股減少了24.5%,從58.34億股減少到44億股。流通股的大幅減少讓每股收益同期增長了三分之一。所以,僅僅股票回購就能使每股收益每年平均提高5.5%,是營收增長對每股收益增長的貢獻率的兩倍。

回購和營收增長讓每股收益共增長了約48%,從8.60美元增長到12.73美元,相當于每年增長8%。當然,到目前為止,股票回購對每股收益的貢獻更大。

但蘋果股價的上漲幅度更大,從130美元上漲到362美元,漲幅高達176%。股價大漲的原因是蘋果市盈率從15提高近一倍達到28。事實證明,突然之間投資者愿意為每一美元收益投入越來越多資金,這是蘋果過去五年能為投資者帶來豐厚回報的最大因素。

我們把這些數據加在一起。蘋果公司在2015年3月至2020年3月期間的總收益率為20%,其中營收增長貢獻了2.5個百分點,股票回購貢獻了5.5個百分點,股息貢獻了2個百分點,總計10%。估值擴張貢獻了10個百分點,與其他三個因素的總和相當。

當然,這四個因素也將決定未來五年蘋果股價的走勢。只是這次,投資者沒有了從低點進場的優勢。我們假設蘋果的市盈率維持在28。這是樂觀的預測,因為這個數字遠高于今天已經較高的市盈率22。如此高的估值使得估值擴張不再是一個長期驅動因素,當然出現泡沫的可能性始終存在,在這種情況下市盈率或許會短暫上漲。

假設市盈率維持在28,每股收益增長將主要來自其他三個因素:營收增長、股票回購和股息。我們假設蘋果的營收延續過去五年的趨勢,每年對每股收益增長的貢獻率為2.5%。或許這聽起來并不高,但要實現利潤增長2.5%,蘋果每年的銷售額需要增加約70億美元,并且每年都要保持這樣的增長勢頭。

如果蘋果按照以往的做法,將75%的營收用于股票回購,則可以把每股收益再提高2.6%。與過去五年相比,股票回購對每股收益的提振效果減少了超過一半。第三個因素股息的貢獻率約為1%。將營收增長(2.5%)、股票回購(2.6%)和股息(1%)增加的每股收益相加,總計可以使每股收益增長6.1%。因此,由于當前的高股價導致市盈率不可能繼續升高,并且股票回購的效果減弱,按照新的計算方式,蘋果未來的收益率只有過去五年(20%)的三分之一左右。

當然,蘋果的利潤增長速度可能高于每年2.5%。比如,有支持者提到了蘋果可穿戴設備和特許服務業務的強勁增長。但壞消息是,在截至3月的一個季度,蘋果旗艦iPhone手機的銷量和總利潤均出現了下滑。蘋果多年前之所以能吸引投資者,是因為它是一個增長緩慢的龐然大物,并且股價極低。現在它依舊是一個增長緩慢的龐然大物,但其股價卻已經高不可攀。蘋果確實像粉絲們說的那樣是一家優秀的公司。但蘋果唯一表現平平的方面就是股票的前景。(財富中文網)

譯者:Biz

The spectacular performance of Apple stock over the past half-decade created a problem for folks pondering whether to board this seemingly unstoppable express right now. Put simply, America’s greatest enterprise has gotten so expensive that for the next five years, investors will be lucky to make plodding, mid-single-digit returns.

Just over three months ago, it appeared that the Apple phenomenon was faltering when the COVID-19 selloff drove its shares down 30% from their all-time high of $325 in mid-February to $224. Next came a rebound that had fans believing that Apple’s big price is no immovable object when confronted with the irresistible force of its runaway momentum. From March 23 to June 20, the iPhone maker climbed 62% to $362, beating the previous record and adding $600 billion to its valuation, approximately equal to the combined market caps of Netflix, Tesla, and Adobe. That jump must mark the biggest value spike in the annals of world capitalism.

Given that Apple’s share price now stands far above its levels for most of the past five years, it’s reasonable to ask whether it’s still a bargain. To answer that question, let’s examine the factors that enabled Apple to deliver such stupendous returns over the past half-decade, and handicap whether those levers can conceivably provide the same lift in the years ahead.

From the end of March 2015 (the second quarter of its fiscal year) to March of this year, Apple delivered total annual returns of roughly 20%: 18% from capital gains and 2% from dividends. It was able provide such sumptuous rewards not because the basics––its earnings––expanded rapidly, but because its shares were extremely cheap, giving its stock repurchases lots of bang-for-the-buck and leaving plenty of runway for growth in its P/E multiple, the share price investors are willing to pay for each dollar in profits.

In March of 2015, Apple had earned $50.4 billion over the previous four quarters, and its market cap stood at $758 billion. Hence, its multiple was just 15. A figure that low implies that investors viewed its total dollar earnings as staying flat for a long time, or even declining. In fact, Apple’s net profits only rose to $57.24 billion through March of 2020 based on the most recent four quarters, or 13.6%. That’s a gain of just 2.5% a year, beating inflation by around a point. A growth juggernaut Apple was not.

But Apple had a powerful tool for lifting its earnings per share. This matchless cash machine requires so little capital investment that it can, and still does, plow all of its earnings into dividends and buybacks, the latter being by far its biggest driver. At that P/E of 15, every dollar in repurchases raised Apple’s EPS by 6.7¢ because its shares were so inexpensive in comparison to its profits. And its average P/E remained in the 15 bargain range, based on average earnings of around $50 billion a year, until the moonshot in its stock price started in mid-2019.

During most of those five years, Apple was spending three-quarters of its earnings on buybacks. From 2015 to 2020, that campaign lowered its count 24.5% from 5.834 billion to 4.4 billion shares. The big shrink raised EPS by around one-third over that period. So buybacks alone increased EPS by an average of 5.5% annually, over twice the contribution from earnings.

All told, buybacks and earnings growth combined to swell earnings per share around 48%, or 8% a year, from $8.60 to $12.73. Of course, repurchases packed by far the greater firepower.

But Apple’s share price jumped by far more, by 176% from $130 to $362. The additional juice came from an almost doubling of Apple’s P/E multiple from 15 to 28. It was that explosion in investors’ sudden willingness to pay more and more for each dollar in earnings that proved the biggest factor in delivering those big five-year returns.

Let’s add it up. Of Apple’s total returns from March 2015 through March 2020 of 20%, earnings gains contributed 2.5 points, repurchases 5.5, and dividends 2, for a total of 10%. Multiple expansion alone provided a 10-point boost, matching the other three factors combined.

Of course, those same four drivers will also determine how Apple’s shares perform over the next half-decade. But this time, investors don’t start with the edge of buying in cheap. Let’s posit that Apple’s P/E remains steady at 28. That’s an optimistic projection since that multiple is well above today’s not modest 22. That lofty valuation takes multiple expansion pretty much off the table as a long-run driver, although the P/E could spike temporarily if we enter bubble land, always a possibility.

Assuming the P/E remains flat at 28, all gains need to come from the other three components: earnings growth, buybacks, and dividends. We’ll assume that earnings continue on their five-year trend by advancing 2.5% a year. If that sounds like a low bar, consider that to generate 2.5% profit growth, Apple needs to add around $7 billion in new sales every year, and keep doing it year in and year out.

If Apple spends its usual 75% of earnings on buybacks, repurchases will raise EPS another 2.6%. That’s less than half the kick they supplied for most of the past five years. The third contributor is the dividend of around 1%. Stack the building blocks, and earnings add 2.5%, buybacks 2.6%, and dividends 1%, for a total of 6.1%. Hence, the new Apple math, dictated by its current high price that makes a higher P/E unlikely and buybacks less potent, points to future returns that are about one-third of its 20% gains over the past five years.

Of course, it’s possible that Apple will expand profits a lot faster than 2.5% a year. Its champions cite strong growth in its wearables and services franchises. On the negative side, sales in its flagship iPhones, and total profits, declined in the March quarter. No, Apple was so appealing a few years ago because it was a slow-growth stalwart that was dirt cheap. It’s still a slow-growth stalwart, but now it’s premium priced. As an enterprise, Apple'’s as superb as its fans claim. The only thing mediocre about Apple is the outlook for its stock.

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